Source: research/002-ai-chain-full-market-leaders/002_historical_and_observed_peak_appendix.md
Last modified: 2026-06-04 16:55:56 · 13,899 bytes
#002 Historical Multi-cycle PE Library + Current Observed-peak Appendix
Run date: 2026-06-04 16:55:56
Historical Multi-cycle Summary
| cycle |
positive_pe_samples |
median_pe_expansion |
mean_pe_expansion |
q25_pe_expansion |
q75_pe_expansion |
median_price_return |
median_earnings_proxy_change |
special_rows |
| 2014_2015_growth |
13 |
0.8466 |
0.8497 |
0.6434 |
1.0286 |
1.0479 |
0.1529 |
0 |
| 2017_2018_supply_reform |
10 |
-0.1957 |
-0.1671 |
-0.6065 |
-0.0294 |
0.8652 |
2.0243 |
2 |
Historical Positive-PE Rows
| cycle |
order_book_id |
name |
segment |
anchor_date |
peak_date |
anchor_pe_ttm |
peak_pe_ttm |
pe_expansion_pct |
price_return_pct |
earnings_proxy_change_pct |
| 2014_2015_growth |
600519.XSHG |
贵州茅台 |
食品饮料 |
2014-07-01 |
2015-05-25 |
10.6214 |
20.4529 |
0.9256 |
1.0232 |
0.0507 |
| 2014_2015_growth |
000858.XSHE |
五粮液 |
食品饮料 |
2014-07-01 |
2015-06-24 |
9.2704 |
23.0285 |
1.4841 |
0.9708 |
-0.2223 |
| 2014_2015_growth |
600887.XSHG |
伊利股份 |
食品饮料 |
2014-07-01 |
2015-06-09 |
17.8959 |
30.4693 |
0.7026 |
1.0479 |
0.1529 |
| 2014_2015_growth |
600276.XSHG |
恒瑞医药 |
医药 |
2014-07-01 |
2015-05-27 |
38.6278 |
60.5117 |
0.5665 |
1.0165 |
0.2948 |
| 2014_2015_growth |
600196.XSHG |
复星医药 |
医药 |
2014-07-01 |
2015-06-04 |
21.8549 |
39.6042 |
0.8121 |
0.9659 |
0.0692 |
| 2014_2015_growth |
000538.XSHE |
云南白药 |
医药 |
2014-07-01 |
2015-06-24 |
21.9260 |
36.0322 |
0.6434 |
0.7193 |
0.0462 |
| 2014_2015_growth |
000333.XSHE |
美的集团 |
家电 |
2014-07-01 |
2015-05-26 |
11.6517 |
15.1322 |
0.2987 |
1.2072 |
0.6541 |
| 2014_2015_growth |
000651.XSHE |
格力电器 |
家电 |
2014-07-01 |
2015-06-01 |
7.2198 |
13.3322 |
0.8466 |
1.2986 |
0.2448 |
| 2014_2015_growth |
600690.XSHG |
海尔智家 |
家电 |
2014-07-01 |
2015-06-09 |
9.1128 |
19.2132 |
1.1084 |
1.2284 |
0.1833 |
| 2014_2015_growth |
002415.XSHE |
海康威视 |
信息技术 |
2014-07-01 |
2015-05-26 |
20.8837 |
42.3650 |
1.0286 |
2.1309 |
0.5209 |
| 2014_2015_growth |
002236.XSHE |
大华股份 |
信息技术 |
2014-07-01 |
2015-05-26 |
26.2370 |
52.9550 |
1.0183 |
0.7758 |
-0.1223 |
| 2014_2015_growth |
300017.XSHE |
网宿科技 |
信息技术 |
2014-07-01 |
2015-06-16 |
67.5960 |
86.4504 |
0.2789 |
1.2782 |
0.8002 |
| 2014_2015_growth |
600612.XSHG |
老凤祥 |
消费 |
2014-07-01 |
2015-06-04 |
14.9497 |
34.8690 |
1.3324 |
1.6169 |
0.0869 |
| 2017_2018_supply_reform |
600019.XSHG |
宝钢股份 |
钢铁 |
2017-01-03 |
2018-02-05 |
23.9787 |
17.0510 |
-0.2889 |
0.8268 |
2.3666 |
| 2017_2018_supply_reform |
000708.XSHE |
中信特钢 |
钢铁 |
2017-01-03 |
2017-09-07 |
20.7722 |
20.5885 |
-0.0088 |
0.2181 |
0.2071 |
| 2017_2018_supply_reform |
600188.XSHG |
兖矿能源 |
煤炭 |
2017-01-03 |
2018-02-05 |
46.0726 |
15.1277 |
-0.6717 |
0.8248 |
4.5061 |
| 2017_2018_supply_reform |
000933.XSHE |
神火股份 |
煤炭 |
2017-01-03 |
2017-08-09 |
4222.1100 |
91.2341 |
-0.9784 |
1.6677 |
122.0189 |
| 2017_2018_supply_reform |
600309.XSHG |
万华化学 |
化工 |
2017-01-03 |
2017-10-10 |
18.4679 |
16.5737 |
-0.1026 |
1.3253 |
1.6821 |
| 2017_2018_supply_reform |
600426.XSHG |
华鲁恒升 |
化工 |
2017-01-03 |
2018-01-26 |
21.4414 |
29.3384 |
0.3683 |
0.9037 |
0.3815 |
| 2017_2018_supply_reform |
000830.XSHE |
鲁西化工 |
化工 |
2017-01-03 |
2018-02-05 |
69.7259 |
31.8585 |
-0.5431 |
3.4149 |
8.6625 |
| 2017_2018_supply_reform |
601899.XSHG |
紫金矿业 |
有色 |
2017-01-03 |
2018-02-05 |
52.1399 |
47.3853 |
-0.0912 |
0.6362 |
0.8943 |
| 2017_2018_supply_reform |
600362.XSHG |
江西铜业 |
有色 |
2017-01-03 |
2018-02-05 |
149.2022 |
55.5580 |
-0.6276 |
0.3078 |
2.4811 |
| 2017_2018_supply_reform |
601600.XSHG |
中国铝业 |
有色 |
2017-01-03 |
2017-09-04 |
49.0321 |
111.4473 |
1.2729 |
0.9151 |
-0.1574 |
Historical Special Rows
| cycle |
order_book_id |
name |
segment |
anchor_pe_ttm |
peak_pe_ttm |
price_return_pct |
status |
| 2017_2018_supply_reform |
000717.XSHE |
韶钢松山 |
钢铁 |
-15.2251 |
12.9573 |
0.8076 |
earnings_recovery_special |
| 2017_2018_supply_reform |
601225.XSHG |
陕西煤业 |
煤炭 |
-311.7198 |
10.7789 |
1.1909 |
earnings_recovery_special |
Current AI Observed-peak Snapshot Summary
| offset_days |
samples |
avg_votes |
median_votes |
score_ge_3 |
L1_rate |
L2_rate |
L3_rate |
L4_rate |
L5_rate |
| -90.0000 |
25.0000 |
0.0800 |
0.0000 |
0.0000 |
0.0400 |
0.0000 |
0.0000 |
0.0400 |
0.0000 |
| -60.0000 |
25.0000 |
0.2000 |
0.0000 |
0.0000 |
0.0800 |
0.0000 |
0.0400 |
0.0400 |
0.0400 |
| -30.0000 |
25.0000 |
0.4000 |
0.0000 |
0.0000 |
0.1200 |
0.0000 |
0.2000 |
0.0000 |
0.0800 |
| -15.0000 |
25.0000 |
0.4000 |
0.0000 |
0.0000 |
0.0800 |
0.0000 |
0.3200 |
0.0000 |
0.0000 |
| -5.0000 |
25.0000 |
0.8000 |
1.0000 |
0.0000 |
0.1600 |
0.0000 |
0.6400 |
0.0000 |
0.0000 |
| 0.0000 |
25.0000 |
1.0400 |
1.0000 |
0.0000 |
0.2800 |
0.0000 |
0.7600 |
0.0000 |
0.0000 |
Current AI Observed-peak T0 Rows
| order_book_id |
name |
sws_l2 |
snapshot_date |
pe_ttm |
pe_expansion_pct |
ema20_dev |
capital_flow_5d_out |
composite_pcr_pct60 |
votes |
top_probability_pct |
| 300394.XSHE |
天孚通信 |
通信设备 |
2026-06-03 |
178.4366 |
3.9779 |
0.2307 |
False |
0.4733 |
2 |
40 |
| 300308.XSHE |
中际旭创 |
通信设备 |
2026-06-03 |
95.0914 |
3.5534 |
0.1911 |
False |
0.4733 |
2 |
40 |
| 300502.XSHE |
新易盛 |
通信设备 |
2026-06-03 |
72.5390 |
2.5296 |
0.1998 |
False |
0.4733 |
2 |
40 |
| 002380.XSHE |
科远智慧 |
IT服务Ⅱ |
2026-05-22 |
78.8250 |
2.4905 |
0.2673 |
False |
0.4750 |
2 |
40 |
| 688025.XSHG |
杰普特 |
自动化设备 |
2026-05-26 |
126.0891 |
2.2300 |
0.1859 |
False |
0.4750 |
2 |
40 |
| 688313.XSHG |
仕佳光子 |
通信设备 |
2026-05-20 |
211.4629 |
2.1430 |
0.1662 |
False |
0.4750 |
2 |
40 |
| 000988.XSHE |
华工科技 |
自动化设备 |
2026-05-25 |
101.7365 |
2.0543 |
0.2097 |
False |
0.4750 |
2 |
40 |
| 688150.XSHG |
莱特光电 |
电子化学品Ⅱ |
2026-05-25 |
140.9086 |
1.8907 |
0.2018 |
False |
0.4750 |
1 |
20 |
| 300548.XSHE |
长芯博创 |
通信设备 |
2026-04-22 |
243.1666 |
1.7302 |
0.2848 |
False |
0.9667 |
1 |
20 |
| 002463.XSHE |
沪电股份 |
元件 |
2026-05-26 |
59.6555 |
1.4817 |
0.2335 |
False |
0.4750 |
1 |
20 |
| 600183.XSHG |
生益科技 |
元件 |
2026-06-03 |
87.2417 |
1.4474 |
0.2358 |
False |
0.4733 |
1 |
20 |
| 300604.XSHE |
长川科技 |
半导体 |
2026-05-25 |
100.0277 |
1.0400 |
0.2075 |
False |
0.4750 |
1 |
20 |
| 688127.XSHG |
蓝特光学 |
光学光电子 |
2026-05-22 |
89.5294 |
1.0380 |
0.1885 |
False |
0.4750 |
1 |
20 |
| 300857.XSHE |
协创数据 |
消费电子 |
2026-05-13 |
83.5565 |
0.9649 |
0.2002 |
False |
0.8767 |
1 |
20 |
| 300054.XSHE |
鼎龙股份 |
电子化学品Ⅱ |
2026-05-26 |
90.8480 |
0.8617 |
0.1532 |
False |
0.4750 |
1 |
20 |
| 603893.XSHG |
瑞芯微 |
半导体 |
2025-08-29 |
109.8616 |
0.1996 |
0.2811 |
False |
0.5900 |
1 |
20 |
| 603629.XSHG |
利通电子 |
消费电子 |
2026-05-29 |
118.1644 |
-0.6140 |
0.3367 |
False |
0.4750 |
1 |
20 |
| 001309.XSHE |
德明利 |
半导体 |
2026-05-18 |
40.6327 |
-0.8361 |
0.2482 |
False |
0.4750 |
1 |
20 |
| 301308.XSHE |
江波龙 |
半导体 |
2026-05-13 |
47.1691 |
nan |
0.3787 |
False |
0.8767 |
1 |
20 |
| 601138.XSHG |
工业富联 |
消费电子 |
2026-06-03 |
39.5665 |
1.2975 |
0.1456 |
False |
0.4733 |
0 |
0 |
| 300476.XSHE |
胜宏科技 |
元件 |
2026-05-26 |
82.5223 |
1.0546 |
0.1254 |
False |
0.4750 |
0 |
0 |
| 300684.XSHE |
中石科技 |
电子化学品Ⅱ |
2026-05-25 |
58.3460 |
0.8542 |
0.0922 |
False |
0.4750 |
0 |
0 |
| 300033.XSHE |
同花顺 |
软件开发 |
2025-08-29 |
113.1894 |
0.3473 |
0.1342 |
False |
0.5900 |
0 |
0 |
| 603508.XSHG |
思维列控 |
计算机设备 |
2025-09-01 |
21.4043 |
0.2163 |
0.1196 |
False |
0.6400 |
0 |
0 |
| 688525.XSHG |
佰维存储 |
半导体 |
2026-05-18 |
39.4718 |
nan |
0.1349 |
False |
0.4750 |
0 |
0 |
Caveats
- Current AI observed-peak appendix uses each stock's highest close from 2025-06-30 to 2026-06-03, not a future-predicted or confirmed cycle top.
- It is an in-cycle calibration appendix for the high-confluence framework; do not describe it as a peak prediction backtest.
- Historical 2017-2018 negative-anchor PE rows stay as earnings-recovery special cases and are excluded from positive-PE median PE expansion.