Mini-Cypress Research Series #002 Method Plan
Objective
#002 expands #001 from P1 holdings to the full-market A-share AI-chain leader set, then adds the first four follow-up research directions from #001 section 9:
1. stock-specific pre-breakout anchor, using the trading day before the first 60D breakout;
2. expanded historical cycle samples, beyond the 2020-2021 new-energy sample;
3. speed comparison between earnings realization and PE expansion;
4. top-signal matching 1-3 months before historical peaks.
The fifth item, V_R regime-conditional study, is excluded from #002 and reserved for a later v1.6 risk study.
First-stage Universe
The universe is rule-based, not P1-holding based:
- Base data: Task #5 all-market technical prefilter and strict weekly candidate cache through 2026-06-03.
- Industry filter: SWS L2/L3 AI-chain scope, using the 2026 SWS snapshot.
- Included SWS L2: 半导体, 通信设备, 元件, 消费电子, 光学光电子, 电子化学品Ⅱ, 计算机设备, 软件开发, IT服务Ⅱ, 自动化设备.
- Explicit exclusions at this stage: 电池, 光伏设备, 风电设备, 电网设备. These may be studied as separate power-electronics/new-energy adjacencies, but they should not dilute the AI-chain report.
Leader Tiers
Two leader tiers are used so the report can keep both price leadership and fundamental quality visible:
- strict_leader: AI-chain stock with at least one Task #5 strict weekly candidate row since 2025-06-30. This means technical trend/RS, basic earnings quality, liquidity, and non-ST gates passed.
- technical_leader_fundamental_caveat: AI-chain stock that did not pass the strict fundamental gate but has leader-like price behavior since 2025-06-30: tech_score >= 3.15, rs_pct_batch >= 0.95, trend_count >= 7, and 20D traded value >= RMB 80m.
The second tier is included because AI-chain cycles often include turnaround, loss-to-profit, or heavy-capex names where strict trailing fundamentals lag the price cycle. It must be analyzed separately from high-quality strict leaders.
Anchor Rule
For each selected stock:
- Search window starts on 2025-04-07 and ends on 2026-06-03.
- First 60D breakout date is the first date where close > prior 60-trading-day high * 1.005.
- Anchor date is the previous trading day before that breakout.
- Main decomposition period is anchor date to 2026-06-03; peak diagnostics also use anchor date to each stock's cycle price peak after 2025-06-30.
Decomposition Rule
The next enrichment step fetches pe_ratio_ttm and market_cap for anchor, current/end, and cycle price peak dates.
For positive-PE comparable rows:
- price/market-cap return is decomposed into PE multiple expansion and earnings proxy expansion;
- earnings_proxy = market_cap / pe_ratio_ttm;
- loss-to-profit, negative-PE, and extreme low-base cases are not forced into the same formula. They are tagged separately.
Historical Cycle Plan
#002 should compare the current AI-chain cycle against at least:
- 2020-2021 new-energy leaders, using the completed #001 reference sample;
- 2017-2018 growth/manufacturing cycle, selected with the same all-market leader rules where data coverage permits;
- 2014-2015 growth bull sample, selected with the same price/RS framework, with fundamental and northbound caveats explicitly marked where coverage is incomplete.
Top-signal Plan
For each historical sample, inspect 1-3 months before the stock-level or basket-level peak:
- PE expansion percentile and speed;
- earnings proxy growth slowdown or failure to keep pace with price;
- trend-count deterioration / loss of new-high behavior;
- liquidity and turnover spike/fade;
- northbound/fund-flow proxies where available.
The output should be a CIO-facing verdict table, not only a factor dump.