Source: task4-all-weather/output/phase_a_precheck/task4_r2_growth_leader_precheck.md
Last modified: 2026-05-18 11:58:33 · 19,788 bytes

Task #4 R2 Growth Leader Precheck

Method: rank actual leaders from 2024-09-24 to 2026-05-16, then map durable clusters to liquid ETF representatives. Phase A baseline remains on hold until Kaite/RayDario final pick.

Top Industry Indices Since 2024-09-24

order_book_id start end days total_return ann_return ann_vol sharpe symbol excess_vs_hs300
801102.INDX 2024-09-24 2026-05-15 393 374.75% 171.49% 46.34% 370.06% 申银万国指数-通信设备 329.77%
801083.INDX 2024-09-24 2026-05-15 393 298.38% 142.62% 45.43% 313.90% 申银万国指数-元件 253.40%
801770.INDX 2024-09-24 2026-05-15 393 258.93% 126.93% 38.95% 325.90% 申银万国指数-通信 213.95%
801081.INDX 2024-09-24 2026-05-15 393 232.78% 116.18% 41.76% 278.23% 申银万国指数-半导体 187.80%
801086.INDX 2024-09-24 2026-05-15 393 207.48% 105.50% 38.66% 272.85% 申银万国指数-电子化学品Ⅱ 162.50%
801080.INDX 2024-09-24 2026-05-15 393 188.61% 97.32% 36.81% 264.37% 申银万国指数-电子 143.63%
801078.INDX 2024-09-24 2026-05-15 393 167.83% 88.08% 39.05% 225.56% 申银万国指数-自动化设备 122.85%
801230.INDX 2024-09-24 2026-05-15 393 156.35% 82.88% 32.93% 251.66% 申银万国指数-综合 111.37%
801050.INDX 2024-09-24 2026-05-15 393 123.47% 67.46% 32.76% 205.91% 申银万国指数-有色金属 78.49%
801085.INDX 2024-09-24 2026-05-15 393 122.01% 66.77% 38.13% 175.11% 申银万国指数-消费电子 77.03%
801890.INDX 2024-09-24 2026-05-15 393 114.69% 63.21% 29.45% 214.63% 申银万国指数-机械设备 69.71%
801730.INDX 2024-09-24 2026-05-15 393 105.41% 58.66% 32.74% 179.17% 申银万国指数-电力设备 60.43%
801972.INDX 2024-09-24 2026-05-15 393 100.91% 56.42% 28.42% 198.50% 申银万国指数-环保设备Ⅱ 55.93%
801103.INDX 2024-09-24 2026-05-15 393 82.54% 47.09% 40.81% 115.39% 申银万国指数-IT服务Ⅱ 37.56%
801710.INDX 2024-09-24 2026-05-15 393 77.14% 44.29% 26.00% 170.32% 申银万国指数-建筑材料 32.16%
801093.INDX 2024-09-24 2026-05-15 393 76.93% 44.18% 27.44% 161.01% 申银万国指数-汽车零部件 31.95%
801740.INDX 2024-09-24 2026-05-15 393 76.00% 43.69% 33.88% 128.93% 申银万国指数-国防军工 31.02%
801765.INDX 2024-09-24 2026-05-15 393 75.57% 43.46% 39.67% 109.57% 申银万国指数-广告营销 30.59%
801030.INDX 2024-09-24 2026-05-15 393 72.27% 41.73% 24.68% 169.07% 申银万国指数-基础化工 27.29%
801101.INDX 2024-09-24 2026-05-15 393 68.86% 39.92% 32.41% 123.17% 申银万国指数-计算机设备 23.88%
801750.INDX 2024-09-24 2026-05-15 393 68.25% 39.60% 37.64% 105.21% 申银万国指数-计算机 23.27%
801156.INDX 2024-09-24 2026-05-15 393 64.57% 37.63% 37.42% 100.58% 申银万国指数-医疗服务 19.59%
801970.INDX 2024-09-24 2026-05-15 393 63.70% 37.17% 24.34% 152.72% 申银万国指数-环保 18.72%
801760.INDX 2024-09-24 2026-05-15 393 62.10% 36.31% 34.90% 104.04% 申银万国指数-传媒 17.12%
801104.INDX 2024-09-24 2026-05-15 393 57.23% 33.67% 40.56% 83.00% 申银万国指数-软件开发 12.25%
801971.INDX 2024-09-24 2026-05-15 393 55.42% 32.68% 23.94% 136.53% 申银万国指数-环境治理 10.44%
801140.INDX 2024-09-24 2026-05-15 393 54.70% 32.28% 23.40% 137.97% 申银万国指数-轻工制造 9.72%
801880.INDX 2024-09-24 2026-05-15 393 52.52% 31.08% 24.71% 125.80% 申银万国指数-汽车 7.54%
801096.INDX 2024-09-24 2026-05-15 393 47.02% 28.03% 27.61% 101.52% 申银万国指数-商用车 2.04%
801720.INDX 2024-09-24 2026-05-15 393 44.04% 26.37% 23.11% 114.10% 申银万国指数-建筑装饰 -0.94%

ETF Candidates Ranked By 2024-09-24 Return

order_book_id label cluster listed_date total_return sharpe turnover_60d_rmb corr252_159781.XSHE corr252_512100.XSHG corr252_512400.XSHG corr252_515210.XSHG corr252_515220.XSHG corr252_159870.XSHE
515880.XSHG 通信设备 communications 2019-09-06 3.16 3.44 1896756503.85 0.87 0.64 0.36 0.25 -0.11 0.25
515050.XSHG 5G通信 communications 2019-10-16 2.63 3.13 493021729.43 0.91 0.68 0.37 0.26 -0.11 0.28
512480.XSHG 半导体 semiconductor_chip 2019-06-12 2.16 2.76 1397101167.63 0.86 0.74 0.46 0.31 -0.08 0.39
512220.XSHG TMT150 tmt 2014-08-19 2.11 2.96 14502497.27 0.95 0.78 0.45 0.33 -0.10 0.37
512760.XSHG 半导体芯片 semiconductor_chip 2019-06-12 2.01 2.60 323909278.13 0.85 0.73 0.45 0.31 -0.07 0.39
159995.XSHE 半导体芯片 semiconductor_chip 2020-02-10 1.99 2.55 820201740.44 0.86 0.71 0.44 0.30 -0.06 0.38
159819.XSHE 人工智能 ai_compute 2020-09-23 1.98 2.68 598743358.55 0.94 0.75 0.42 0.29 -0.14 0.29
159801.XSHE 半导体芯片 semiconductor_chip 2020-02-18 1.98 2.54 137323017.11 0.86 0.70 0.44 0.30 -0.06 0.38
515070.XSHG 人工智能 ai_compute 2019-12-24 1.96 2.71 227246570.68 0.93 0.75 0.41 0.29 -0.13 0.29
512930.XSHG 人工智能 ai_compute 2019-08-23 1.95 2.67 155787173.03 0.93 0.74 0.42 0.29 -0.13 0.29
159781.XSHE 科创创业50 broad_growth_proxy 2021-07-05 1.87 2.36 244934652.18 1.00 0.72 0.45 0.30 -0.05 0.38
159539.XSHE 信创 xinchuang 2023-09-28 1.56 2.06 2920794.33 0.84 0.78 0.48 0.37 -0.06 0.40
159537.XSHE 信息技术创新 xinchuang 2023-10-10 1.53 2.03 5929859.12 0.83 0.78 0.48 0.36 -0.06 0.39
159890.XSHE 云计算 cloud_data 2021-04-02 1.45 1.93 47952357.63 0.79 0.77 0.43 0.35 -0.11 0.27
516510.XSHG 云计算大数据 cloud_data 2021-04-07 1.45 1.95 171281800.25 0.78 0.76 0.42 0.34 -0.12 0.26
560800.XSHG 数字经济 digital_economy 2022-01-07 1.40 2.08 10927078.10 0.86 0.80 0.49 0.37 -0.05 0.42
159658.XSHE 数字经济 digital_economy 2022-10-12 1.31 1.94 7125195.43 0.87 0.78 0.47 0.36 -0.05 0.41
515700.XSHG 新能源车 new_energy 2020-02-10 1.15 1.90 81975194.67 0.61 0.67 0.64 0.47 0.17 0.70
515030.XSHG 新能源汽车 new_energy 2020-03-04 1.12 1.87 291435202.23 0.61 0.67 0.64 0.47 0.18 0.70
159770.XSHE 机器人 robotics 2021-11-08 1.02 1.61 251020954.34 0.69 0.81 0.41 0.39 -0.11 0.41
562500.XSHG 机器人 robotics 2021-12-29 1.01 1.62 841637880.67 0.68 0.80 0.42 0.38 -0.11 0.41
159551.XSHE 机器人 robotics 2023-11-16 0.99 1.59 21446297.87 0.67 0.80 0.42 0.38 -0.10 0.41
516160.XSHG 新能源 new_energy 2021-02-04 0.92 1.63 327392996.72 0.62 0.68 0.64 0.53 0.27 0.67
159875.XSHE 新能源 new_energy 2021-08-17 0.91 1.56 106776106.97 0.62 0.68 0.62 0.52 0.26 0.65
512100.XSHG 中证1000 small_cap 2016-11-04 0.90 1.86 2534176405.83 0.72 1.00 0.65 0.66 0.10 0.61
512720.XSHG 计算机 computer_software 2019-08-16 0.84 1.29 40620043.58 0.71 0.84 0.49 0.44 -0.05 0.38
159998.XSHE 计算机 computer_software 2020-04-13 0.83 1.27 119033613.78 0.71 0.84 0.48 0.44 -0.04 0.38
512660.XSHG 军工 defense 2016-08-08 0.69 1.18 481894040.77 0.48 0.75 0.41 0.48 -0.00 0.36
159638.XSHE 高端装备 advanced_equipment 2022-08-12 0.65 1.05 66258935.88 0.45 0.71 0.38 0.46 -0.03 0.34
159852.XSHE 软件服务 computer_software 2021-02-09 0.54 0.80 442992494.43 0.59 0.80 0.46 0.43 -0.05 0.36
515230.XSHG 软件 computer_software 2021-03-02 0.53 0.78 197201614.38 0.58 0.80 0.44 0.42 -0.04 0.35
512710.XSHG 军工龙头 defense 2019-08-26 0.47 0.78 509481351.28 0.39 0.65 0.37 0.45 0.01 0.34
512170.XSHG 医疗 healthcare_innovation 2019-06-17 0.17 0.38 590307260.12 0.46 0.67 0.46 0.48 0.08 0.45
512010.XSHG 医药 healthcare_innovation 2013-10-28 0.12 0.29 449508216.48 0.44 0.53 0.44 0.40 0.06 0.42

Best Representative By Cluster

cluster order_book_id label listed_date total_return sharpe turnover_60d_rmb corr252_159781.XSHE corr252_512100.XSHG corr252_512400.XSHG corr252_159870.XSHE
communications 515880.XSHG 通信设备 2019-09-06 3.16 3.44 1896756503.85 0.87 0.64 0.36 0.25
semiconductor_chip 512480.XSHG 半导体 2019-06-12 2.16 2.76 1397101167.63 0.86 0.74 0.46 0.39
tmt 512220.XSHG TMT150 2014-08-19 2.11 2.96 14502497.27 0.95 0.78 0.45 0.37
ai_compute 159819.XSHE 人工智能 2020-09-23 1.98 2.68 598743358.55 0.94 0.75 0.42 0.29
broad_growth_proxy 159781.XSHE 科创创业50 2021-07-05 1.87 2.36 244934652.18 1.00 0.72 0.45 0.38
xinchuang 159539.XSHE 信创 2023-09-28 1.56 2.06 2920794.33 0.84 0.78 0.48 0.40
cloud_data 516510.XSHG 云计算大数据 2021-04-07 1.45 1.95 171281800.25 0.78 0.76 0.42 0.26
digital_economy 560800.XSHG 数字经济 2022-01-07 1.40 2.08 10927078.10 0.86 0.80 0.49 0.42
new_energy 515030.XSHG 新能源汽车 2020-03-04 1.12 1.87 291435202.23 0.61 0.67 0.64 0.70
robotics 159770.XSHE 机器人 2021-11-08 1.02 1.61 251020954.34 0.69 0.81 0.41 0.41
small_cap 512100.XSHG 中证1000 2016-11-04 0.90 1.86 2534176405.83 0.72 1.00 0.65 0.61
defense 512660.XSHG 军工 2016-08-08 0.69 1.18 481894040.77 0.48 0.75 0.41 0.36
advanced_equipment 159638.XSHE 高端装备 2022-08-12 0.65 1.05 66258935.88 0.45 0.71 0.38 0.34
computer_software 159852.XSHE 软件服务 2021-02-09 0.54 0.80 442992494.43 0.59 0.80 0.46 0.36
healthcare_innovation 512170.XSHG 医疗 2019-06-17 0.17 0.38 590307260.12 0.46 0.67 0.46 0.45

Engineering Read

- Use actual 2024-09-24 leader clusters as evidence; do not mechanically add AI/new-energy/robotics unless they show leadership and non-overlap.

- If representative ETF has corr252 > 0.70 with 159781.XSHE, prefer 159781 coverage unless the cluster has distinct secular importance and strong leadership.

- If multiple ETFs in the same cluster have corr > 0.60, choose one representative rather than adding all.

- Compare with old R2 physical-chain ETFs to preserve the 'growth-sensitive assets' split between physical chain and productivity chain.